Every time Leigh talked about the topic of real estate, many small partners came to ask me if the house in XX City could still buy such problems.
The answer to this question I actually said many times.
First of all, from the financial point of view, buying a house can’t just think about whether you can appreciate or make money. Buying a house requires a comprehensive consideration of your life needs and affordability. Others may find it appropriate to buy an A house, but you may not be able to buy it. You may be more likely. It is suitable to buy a B house, so before you fully understand your situation, Rico cannot answer this question. If you read before you write “The 3 Million Home Purchase Plan I Make for a Millionaire Member” , you know I’m not loading this message.
Second, from a purely investment perspective, the long-term value of the most preserving is always the central area of the central city.
There are three dimensions here.
The first is the center city. The number of central cities in China has come.
The second is the central area. Most of the central cities have loops, the inner ring is better than the Central, the Central is better than the outer ring, and the outer ring is better than the Ring Expressway. If you have a deeper understanding of the city’s past, present, and future plans, you will find that in certain areas, the houses in some areas have more investment value than others. “The most resilience of buying a home on the beach – “Golden Crescent” In the article, I took the case of Shanghai, China’s largest city, as an example.
The third is residential. If the economy collapses, the resilience of the homes is the strongest, and those shops, office buildings, and dual-use commercial and residential buildings are often quite miserable.
These are all correct nonsense. They are still very imaginary. As a geographical madness, Lige came to give you a geography lesson again, telling you if you still want to invest in real estate in China, why are the 15 cities most invested in houses? value!
In the middle school geography class, the teacher taught us that China’s first-level administrative division is called the province. There are 23 provinces in China, and there are three special administrative divisions at the same level as the province. One is called the autonomous region, and there are five. The second is called the municipality. There are four of them. The three are called Special Administrative Districts. There are two for the time being, and one is reserved for Bay.
From the administrative level of the city, The most advanced The nature is the capital, the imperial capital, Kyoto, the capital, the capital, the king city, the center of D, the foot of the heavens…
Secondly It is a municipality directly under the Central Government. It is a clear definition of the two generations of Zhili. It is under the direct jurisdiction of the central government. The municipal finance directly addresses the central government finances. The administrative level of all the municipal officials in all municipalities is based on other provincial-level standards.
second The level of the city is the provincial capital, as well as the autonomous capital of the same level, that is, 23+5=28 cities.
third Level cities are prefecture-level cities, and there are more than 300 resident offices in autonomous prefectures and alliances (Inner Mongolia) at the same level.
fourth The level is the county-level city or county seat, and the same level of autonomous counties, autonomous garrison resident, add up to more than 2,000.
County further down , not to mention the city, and most called the town, that is, many small town youth joke of the “eighteen-line city”, then there are tens of thousands.
China is so big that many provinces must be designated. There will inevitably be many provincial capitals. A province may also be comparable to a European country. The province must also divide a number of prefecture-level cities. Therefore, if you rely on the administrative level, you will determine where the houses are. With investment value, it’s finished…
For example, the GDP of Yinchuan, the capital of Ningxia, was 160 billion yuan in 2016, while the county-level city of Kunshan, which is under the jurisdiction of prefecture-level cities, had a GDP of nearly 320 billion yuan in 2016, and Kunshan is twice that of Yinchuan. Yinchuan’s administrative rank is higher than that of Kunshan, but its GDP is only half of Kunshan. The investment value of Kunshan’s houses far exceeds that of Yinchuan.
Therefore, referring to the story of Xiong’an New District, the central government has long given us a more important reference dimension – economic status – as to which city’s houses have more investment value.
In the early years after the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the rankings of the major cities in the country were ranked in the minds of the Central Government. It can be seen from the telephone area code.
010 Beijing, nothing wrong.
020 Guangzhou, 021 Shanghai, 022 Tianjin, there is nothing controversial.
In the more than 2,000 years since Qin Shihuang’s confiscation of Baiyue, Guangzhou has always been a central city in the Lingnan region (with a short transit to Panyu), and the only foreign trade window after the closure of the Qing dynasty, similar to Nagasaki during the Tokugawa shogunate era in Japan. Shanghai and Tianjin are the two most important open cities in the South and North before the liberation. The concessions and the mixed offices are also the only municipalities outside Beijing established after the founding of the People’s Republic of China (Chongqing was not re-established as a municipality until 1997). It is similar to the “Two Houses” (Osaka Prefecture, Kyoto Prefecture) in Japan’s “One Capital, Two Houses”.
024 Shenyang, 025 Nanjing, 027 Wuhan, 028 Chengdu, 029 Xi’an, which is also well understood. These five cities are the central cities of the five major regions of the Northeast China, East China, Central China, Southwest China and Northwest China. Even today, when the National Bureau of Statistics released the housing price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities in the country, it is arranged in the order of North China, Northeast China, East China, Central China, Southwest China, and Northwest China.
You may say that 026 is gone?
This was specifically reserved for Taipei by the Central Government.
With time passing by, people are using mobile phones, and domestic roaming charges have been eliminated. These telephone area codes have no practical significance, but we can find the status of a city from the area code.
After the reform and opening up, the differences in the economic development of cities and regions in various regions are getting larger and larger. To activate the economy, the central government has established separate cities for planning.
For the Central Government, the financial independence of the planned cities is directly linked to the central government, which is beneficial to the central government. For local governments, the city leaders of cities planning cities in separate cities enjoy provincial-level economic management authority, which can stimulate reform and opening up more efficiently and promote economic development. development of.
By 1993, the Central Government had approved the establishment of 16 cities with separate plans. Shenyang, Dalian, Changchun, Harbin, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Xiamen, Jinan, Qingdao, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Xi’an.
However, due to the ambiguous administrative orientation of the cities under separate planning, it is neither a municipality nor a special economic zone. There are both provincial capitals and prefecture-level prefecture-level cities. In order to rationalize administrative relations, the central government cancelled the plans of the provincial capitals in 1993. Single row.
There are only six remaining cities in the plan: Dalian, Ningbo, Xiamen, Qingdao, Shenzhen, and Chongqing. The administrative levels of these six cities are listed as sub-provincial. Together with 10 other provincial cities, these 16 cities are collectively referred to as the sub-provinces. City. In 1997, Chongqing was upgraded to a municipality. So today, there are only 5 separate cities in China and 15 in sub-provincial cities.
When discussing urban PK online, it is often said that a certain provincial capital city is a sub-provincial city. Many people who are not aware of it will feel strange: They are all provincial cities. How can they still be called “sub-provincial level”?
Because the “provincial capital” refers to the political status of the city, the “sub-provincial level” embodies economic status. There are 28 provincial capitals/capitals in China, but only 10 subprovincial provincial capitals, and the remaining 18 provincial capitals/capitals want to squeeze into the ranks of sub-provincial cities. Competition among them is more fierce than the NBA playoff qualifications.
In 2010, the concept of “National Center City” was introduced
From the row of city telephone numbers before the reform and opening up, to the planned cities of the 1980s, to the sub-provincial cities of the 1990s, although several adjustments were made, the plan is still not as fast as changes, especially after entering the 21st century, China’s The speed of urbanization is alarming. The problem of big city disease and disorderly urban expansion has become more and more serious. After years of research, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development finally launched the concept of “National Central City” in 2010. The first batch of selected cities have Five: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing.
Then taking into account the balance of regional development, the western region Chengdu Central Wuhan with Zhengzhou Eastern Nanjing Has been selected, currently a total of 9 countries have been identified as the central city.
The remaining hot candidate cities are Shenyang, Xi’an, Changsha, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Qingdao and Xiamen.
There are only a few tickets for the National Center City. The outside world has been saying different things. There are ten major cities. This figure is derived from the “10 million” urban system proposed in the “National Urban System Planning 2010-2020”, ie 10 global and national central cities, 100 national cities, 1,000 small and medium-sized cities, and 10,000 featured towns. .
But I do not think it is possible. At the moment, nine tickets have been confirmed. The last ticket to Xi’an will not be given to Shenzhen, and Shenzhen will not be given to Xi’an. But these two cities must be included in the ranks of the national center cities, otherwise this list will be incomplete.
Although Northwest has always been China’s most impoverished and underdeveloped region, the number of places in a country’s central city is not too disharmonious. It is not too politically correct. Xi’an has been the king of the northwest for thousands of years. It has been coded as 029. It has also been selected. Sub-provincial cities, if you do not give a ticket to Xi’an, let the people of the Northwest feel then?
As for Shenzhen, we will not say anything. Did you give tickets to Zhengzhou and did not give it to Shenzhen?
Yes, there is Shenyang.
Although Lige wrote “Beyond the mix, don’t go back to buying your home in the Northeast! 》 This sad reminder of the article, but the Northeast can no longer see hope, there must be a national center city, otherwise the Northeast people really desperate, and not to run to Beijing to run.
As a result, 12 cities have become cities. Then, there are reports that there are 12 central cities in the country.
Later, the legendary expansion to 15. However, things are rare and precious, and if the national central city completely turns into a politically balanced game of arranging fruits and fruits, the gold content will be greatly reduced. So at the end of last year, there was another latest version called “4+11”.
On the one hand, it not only conforms to the objective facts of the economic development of Chinese cities, but also takes into account the balance of regional development. It also categorizes the first-line cities in the north that are recognized by the people as “global cities,” Tianjin, Chongqing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Nanjing and Zhengzhou. In addition, Shenyang, Xi’an, Hangzhou, Qingdao and Xiamen are qualified as “National Center Cities.”
However, the “National Urban System Planning (2016-2030)” that should have been formally introduced last year is still difficult to produce. This shows that the Beijing Offices around the country are actively moving around, which makes the opinions of various ministries and commissions of the central authorities very fierce and can only be shelved and discussed again. The 4+11 statement has not been formally recognized by the government.
However, I think that the 4+11 plan is still quite good. On the one hand, it is practical and realistic, and it is more objective. On the one hand, it is also politically correct.
Seeing here, you might say that Lige, do you want to say that you want to buy and buy the nine central cities of the country and the remaining six potential central cities?
Not all right.
The 15 cities have taken into consideration the city’s own economic mass and economic development level, and have also joined the factors of regional balance. However, we are not buying the house as the central leadership to make decisions, and the regional development balance has half the cents relationship with us. We only need to consider economic factors.
So Shenyang must be eliminated, Suzhou must join!
Although Suzhou is not even listed as a single city, Kunshan, which it manages, ranks among the GDP leaders of all county-level administrative units in the country. Zhangjiagang is the oldest, Changshu is the fourth oldest, and Taicang is the oldest, ranking second. Jiangyin City (hosted by Wuxi), which is close to Zhangjiagang, really shines my eyes!
Suzhou’s economic mass and economic development levels have always been higher than Nanjing, the provincial capital. Suzhou people have always been close to Nanjing’s unfamiliar with Shanghai. Watching TV also sees that Shanghai Taiwan does not look at Jiangsu Taiwan. Recently, Suzhou issued a cemetery restriction order because many people in Shanghai Like to be buried in Suzhou for a hundred years, so as a back garden in Shanghai, the safety factor for buying a house in Suzhou is also very high.
In addition, there are such interesting phenomena in several provinces along the coast of China. The provincial capitals and cities in the plan are not able to deal with them. Sometimes it is also possible to overstate the limelight of the provincial capitals.
Such as Suzhou and Nanjing, Dalian and Shenyang, Qingdao and Jinan, Ningbo and Hangzhou, Xiamen and Fuzhou, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Among them, in addition to Lige said many times that the future of China’s most hopeful promotion to a new tier-one city is particularly strong in the Hangzhou economy, Ningbo has not yet been able to match it. In other cities, the former tends to be stronger than the latter.
Also focus on the relationship between Wuhan and Zhengzhou
Based on geographical determinism, the leader of the rise of central China in the future is not Henan or Hubei, so the central city in the middle is not Zhengzhou or Wuhan, and it cannot be Hefei, Taiyuan, Changsha, or Nanchang.
Both Zhengzhou and Wuhan have excellent geo-environment. Both are at the crossroads of China’s geography. More precisely, Zhengzhou is the crossroads of North China, and Wuhan is the crossroads of South China.
The advantage of Zhengzhou is that it has been the core of the Central Plains since ancient times, with a vast hinterland, a densely populated area, and a vast market potential. The confluence of the Longhai Line and the Beijing-Guangzhou Line is in the west, Luoyang Lock and Guanzhong in the west, Kaifeng and Huaihai in the east, and Xinxiang, Jiaozuo and Anyang in the north. In the south, Xuchang and Pingdingshan, the economic mass of these three-tier cities are roughly the same. In addition to Anyang slightly farther away, several other cities are within 100 kilometers from Zhengzhou. The high-speed rail is half an hour and high-speed one hour. It is closer than the distance from Hangzhou to Shanghai, and Zhengzhou as the center has formed a concentric city. group.
In particular, the most recent Kaifeng benefited the most, because the economy of Zhengzhou is not as powerful as suffocation compared to Kaifeng. Therefore, the integration of Zhengzhou and Zhengzhou is easier than the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. After all, Beijing’s siphon effect is even more expensive as the national center. The city of Tianjin is completely unable to resist. Many Tianjin people live in the “two days of Tianjin people” two-city life.
If the urban agglomerations can coordinate with each other and develop in a balanced manner, the Central Plains urban agglomerations will likely surpass the Chengyu urban agglomeration and the Wuhan urban agglomeration in the future, becoming the most important outside the three major world-class urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. The fourth level.
However, the advantages of Zhengzhou are also weak. The economic volume itself is still worse than Wuhan, especially for the tertiary industry. The Internet, scientific and technological innovation, and financial services are all lacklustre. The level of higher education is even lower than the country’s count, and Henan candidates are very sad. There are too few excellent local institutions, and the scores of foreign colleges and universities are very high. Moreover, due to the incapability of the provincial capital’s own industrial structure, the attraction of high-quality talent is not strong enough, resulting in a particularly severe brain drain in Henan Province. The largest province of labor export in China is not covered. The most precious talents of the 21st century are still talented people…
In Wuhan, on the other hand, the land of the nine provinces is particularly powerful and has a strong siphon effect. The surrounding Yellowstone, Ezhou, Huanggang, Xiaogan and Xianning are very far from Wuhan and even attract talents from the corner of the province to the province. In the city, the future development potential of the urban group in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, centered on Wuhan, may not be as strong as that of the Central Plains.
However, Wuhan has a huge advantage. It is located in the center of Jianghan Plain. There are two major rivers in the Yangtze River, Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake in the southwest and southeast. The water network is densely distributed and there is no communication between them. Going along the east of the Yangtze River is the most important in China. Long Triangle City Circle.
The estuary that can be reached along the Longhai Line in Zhengzhou is located in Lianyungang. In the middle of it, it passes through the even more crowded Huaihai city group centered on Xuzhou. Northern Jiangsu, northern Hebei, southern Shandong, and eastern Henan are all economically underdeveloped regions. , And not the province’s development center of gravity, especially the neighboring Shandong Rizhao Port and Lianyungang has a strong competitive relationship, who are not willing to give each other to do wedding dress, no mother hurt the child, no game.
Therefore, from the perspective of the city itself, Wuhan is clearly stronger than Zhengzhou at present, but there are still variables in the future. I am more optimistic about Wuhan, but I still do not dare to despise Zhengzhou.
Finally, tell everyone a very interesting set of data
The number of Lego WeChat fans totals about 180,000. From this year, the number one city is no longer my home field Shanghai (because Ligeo knows Shanghai the most, talking about Shanghai is the most topical, in theory, it is easier to attract Shanghai fans), but There are more than 16,600 people in Beijing and only 16,100 in Shanghai. I now very much doubt that with the instantaneous population calculation in built-up areas, the crown of the largest city in China today has been quietly worn by Beijing.
Followed by more than 11,400 fans in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, and more than 9,600 in Shenzhen, Shenzhen has already opened a gap with Guangzhou, although Guangzhou has a lot more area and population than Shenzhen.
The 5-7 digits are Chengdu, Hangzhou and Wuhan, respectively. The difference is not significant. All of them are about 5,000.
8-13 are Suzhou, Nanjing, Chongqing, Xi’an, Tianjin and Zhengzhou. The difference is not great either. They are all 3000-4000 people.
These 13 cities were selected as the national center cities. I take it for granted.
It is worth noting that the relationship between Nanjing and Suzhou repeats the relationship between Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and Nanjing and Hangzhou have opened a gap. It is necessary to know that Hangzhou is actually a geographically compelling city surrounded by mountains and rivers, and Shenzhen is very For example, the development space is greatly limited, which in turn supports the potential value of the Hangzhou house.
In addition, Chongqing is very cheap, after all, the area of Chongqing is close to the whole of Zhejiang Province, and it is limited to the landscape of the mountains and cities. There is still a big gap between Chongqing’s economic development level and Chengdu. For more on Chongqing, please see “Recently, it never occurred to me that the housing prices in this city have skyrocketed! 》
While Qingdao and Xiamen are limited to the geographical constraints of the peninsula and the islands, it is unlikely that cities such as Nanjing, Wuhan, and Chengdu will continue to expand. Therefore, there are only 18, 19 fans in the rankings, and Dongguan, Changsha, Foshan and Ningbo are separated from Zhengzhou. But we should give extra points, especially in Xiamen. The price of the island is ridiculously expensive for some people, but it seems reasonable to me.
As for Shenyang, which was kicked off by Force, it was ranked 25th, even lower than Wenzhou.
Finally, I divided these 15 cities into three levels.
The first level: Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou.
Second level: Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Suzhou and Xiamen.
Third level: Tianjin, Qingdao, Chongqing, Xi’an and Zhengzhou.
The first-tier cities are suitable for people from all over the world to buy.
The second-tier cities are suitable for people across the country to buy.
The third-level cities are suitable for people in the province to buy.
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