The two sessions officially opened, and Premier Li Keqiang made a government work report. The overall idea is still to continue the development policy proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year.
Here are some explanations for some of the economic aspects:
First, the GDP growth target for 2017 is 6.5%, the growth rate of M2 is about 12%, and the consumer price increase is about 3%.
The GDP target is further lowered. Last year was the target of 6.8%; M2 growth rate of 12% was the same as last year; consumer price increase by 3%, which allowed a certain small inflation. Judging from this goal setting, today’s economic work task is still very difficult. Under the premise of lowering GDP, it still can’t effectively reduce the growth rate of M2, and CPI has a slight expectation.
The real economy may still have to maintain a hard time this year. The good thing is that monetary policy has always said that it is stable and stable. However, the M2’s 12% growth is indeed positive. The monetary policy has some inertia. We believe that the slow return of monetary policy is possible. This is also the hope of the top.
For the impact of the stock market: Do not worry about the money is not enough, today there will still be 12% of the M2 increase, the money is still a lot, the social pool of funds will still have a beneficial effect. GDP growth of 6.5%, horizontal comparison of the world’s major economies, is still a very high growth rate. Therefore, the fundamentals of listed companies will not be too ugly, there will still be many companies to take the policy dividend express, there is a bull market. The CPI is controlled at around 3%. In fact, this is a certain inflation expectation. Given this wind, it is to prepare everyone to start to meet inflation. Therefore, it is good for resource-based sectors, especially for the periodic sector.
Second, the discharge of major pollutants continues to decline, and efforts to improve the environmental protection of the environment.
Environmental issues have always been the hot topic of recent debates. This year, we continue to include pollutant emissions reductions in government work. This is a reminder that the government will find a balance between environmental protection and GDP. Good environmental protection, PPP stocks, high-quality stocks in these sectors will continue to go out of the bull market for many years, their goodness begins.
Third, adhere to the promotion of supply-side structural reform as the main line
This is very important. It shows that the main line of economic work this year has not changed since the reform of the reform last year was the main line of the Chinese economy. In the future, the main board market will continue to maintain the trend of slow cattle, because the reform dividend is still being released, and it is still far from being released. The GEM still has only staged trading opportunities, and there will be no major strategic opportunities this year. The reason is very simple, this is the reform – the reform is still the main line.
Fourth, use the reform method to further promote the “three to one and one to one supplement.” On the basis of consolidating results, we must improve policy measures and strive for greater results in response to new situations and new problems.
This one is basically a reminder of the main points of the Central Economic Work Conference last year. It shows that the biggest reform task facing the Chinese economy is still to go to capacity, go to inventory, deleverage, reduce costs, and make up the shortcomings. Obviously, this article is good for the excess capacity sector, because these sectors must be reformed, whether they will be restructured or not. Such as steel, some non-ferrous metals companies, cement, glass and other sectors. At the same time, it is also good for the clean energy sector, because after eliminating excess capacity and high pollution capacity, new energy must be quickly replenished.
Fifth, lead the transformation and upgrading of the real economy with innovation. The real economy has always been the foundation of China’s development. The most urgent task is to accelerate the transformation and upgrading. It is necessary to implement the innovation-driven development strategy in depth, promote the optimization structure of the real economy, and continuously improve quality, efficiency and competitiveness.
Finally, innovation was mentioned, but innovation was not positioned as the mainstay of the economy. Therefore, for innovative enterprises, they must have performance support in order to gain market recognition. In the future, they will remain cautious about innovative companies with pure speculation. Such companies have a lot of GEM, so the GEM still has only trading opportunities, because today’s report has been positioned. Reform is the main line, and innovation is the economic line.
Sixth, solidly promote the construction of the “Belt and Road”.
This one is also closely following the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference last year. The Belt and Road is a big opportunity for the next 5-10 years. The maritime Silk Road plate has been in motion for some time, and more topics will be excavated in the future. This main line can choose the high-quality standard for the medium and long-term layout. In particular, the provinces that have passed through the Belt and Road, there will be greater opportunities for listed companies in these places, such as coastal Fujian, Shanghai and other sectors, inland Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other sectors will continue to have opportunities.
7. Continue to adhere to the party’s strong military objectives under the new situation, promote political building, reform and strengthen the army, and rule the army according to law, strengthen the training and preparation of war, and resolutely and effectively safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests. Continue to deepen national defense and military reform.
The national defense military sector must be a sector that crosses the bulls and bears. The integration of military and civilian will continue to advance, and the securitization of military assets will continue. The military sector will continue to usher in more policy dividends. Coupled with the increasing number of external security incidents, the reform of the national defense industry has been strengthened and construction is accelerating. Therefore, there will be continuous trading opportunities in the military sector in the future, especially the related military stocks such as aerospace, missiles, information, and navy.
Based on the above points analysis, the main opportunities this year are:
1. Reform of state-owned enterprises, mixed reforms, reform of central enterprises, and mixed reform of local state-owned enterprises.
2, environmental protection, PPP and other sectors
3, one belt and one road
4, innovative, high-growth listed companies with performance support
5, national defense military
6, the excess capacity reform sector, the cyclical sector with strong inflation expectations.